The sanctions turned out to be meaningless?
The Bank of Russia announced a decision to stop the intervention on the forex market until the end of September. This decision of the regulator has been a turning point for the market, after which the ruble began to strengthen steadily. In
addition to reducing the demand for currency as such, the very fact of
such a decision had a positive impact on the market, as it demonstrated
the Bank of Russia's interest in stabilizing the exchange rate of the
national currency.
The price of Urals oil grew by 7.4% to $73.8 per barrel last week, and is near the maximum for the last four years. The
discussion on sanctions is still a minor issue, since the main
directions of sanctions are already known, but it will hardly be
possible to adopt them in the form of a law until November. However,
as the intermediate elections in the US Congress approach, the
sanctions pressure on the ruble will increase, as there are no
prerequisites for mitigating them.
In the autumn, the ruble will be affected by the factor of payments for foreign currency-denominated debt. However, the payments by the end of the year will
amount to a non-critical amount - $34 billion. Most companies have sufficient currency reserves for debt servicing. Problems with the repayment of debts will not impact the ruble rate, many commentators indicate.
As a result of Friday's trading, the dollar rate was fixed near the level of 67 rubles/$.
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