A further increase in consumption and gradual take-over of the investment burden by private enterprises from state and local government investors are the dominant trends for the coming years. Despite a slight weakening of exports and real consumer incomes, there are no serious threats to the Polish economy on the horizon. In the next 30 months, the Polish economy is expected to grow faster than the economies of other EU countries.
"The Polish economy works on several engines. Consumption is still the largest contributor to growth. We
have an excellent situation on the labor market, rising salaries, good
consumer sentiment ", says Jacek Kotłowski, deputy director of the NBP
Economic Analysis Department. "But the second engine which are investments is also turned on. At
the beginning, these are mainly public finance sector investments,
financed from EU funds, but step by step more and more private company
investments are launched. The third engine is export which is slightly weaker in the recent period due to the fact that the growth in the EU has
slowed down."
The
Polish economy will develop at a rate of 4.6 percent - an increase of
0.4 percent compared to the previous estimate of March this year and a
result identical to that from last year. The data for the first half
of the year published by the Central Statistical
Office shows that in the first six months of the year GDP increased by
5.0-5.2 percent. This means that this year, for the first time, the value of Polish GDP will exceed PLN 2 trillion.
Although the next years will bring a slower growth, the result of 3.8 percent in 2019 and 3.5 percent in 2020 is impressive. The
euro area countries will record over a half weaker growth.
According to the National Bank of Poland, wage growth currently remaining at around 6 percent rate should accelerate to 7 percent; the slowly rising inflation will somewhat limit spending growth. This year, average prices should increase less than in the previous year, when the average annual inflation was 2 percent. In 2019 and 2020 it will be higher (2.7% and 2.9% respectively), but still within the acceptable range of fluctuations in the inflation target (2.5% +/- 1 percentage point).
- We have been observing a slightly higher dynamics of commodity prices recently, which on the one hand results from a slightly weaker exchange rate, on the other hand, from a slowly growing inflation in the world. The price dynamics of services, which were usually a factor that pulled inflation, decreased slightly. The last few months saw the fall in prices in industries such as insurance, mobile telephony, radio and television subscription, and they have affected this slowdown - explains the representative of the Department of Economic Analysis of the National Bank of Poland. - In our opinion, these were rather temporary factors and in the coming months or quarters we expect a slow rise in inflation, but to a relatively low level.
According to the National Bank of Poland, wage growth currently remaining at around 6 percent rate should accelerate to 7 percent; the slowly rising inflation will somewhat limit spending growth. This year, average prices should increase less than in the previous year, when the average annual inflation was 2 percent. In 2019 and 2020 it will be higher (2.7% and 2.9% respectively), but still within the acceptable range of fluctuations in the inflation target (2.5% +/- 1 percentage point).
- We have been observing a slightly higher dynamics of commodity prices recently, which on the one hand results from a slightly weaker exchange rate, on the other hand, from a slowly growing inflation in the world. The price dynamics of services, which were usually a factor that pulled inflation, decreased slightly. The last few months saw the fall in prices in industries such as insurance, mobile telephony, radio and television subscription, and they have affected this slowdown - explains the representative of the Department of Economic Analysis of the National Bank of Poland. - In our opinion, these were rather temporary factors and in the coming months or quarters we expect a slow rise in inflation, but to a relatively low level.
"We see threats outside the Polish economy. We do not know how fast the world economy will develop, we have some signs of a slowdown from the euro zone. We think that they are temporary to a large extent. The
economy of the euro zone will slow down, still maintaining a high rate
of growth, however it can not be ruled out that the slowdown in the pace
of growth will be stronger.
There are certain protectionist measures that, for now, have a more
media character, but if they were to develop, they would be a risk
factor.", says NBP
Economic Analysis Department.
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